It’s summer, but that doesn’t mean that I have stopped working altogether. In fact, our bankers invited me to lunch the other day and so I went on their dime to have tacos and talk about the world (relationship banking!). 

It was at the end of the meal that the topic of the stock market, and more specifically NVIDIA, and the recent gains in both came up. They know my background as a public equities guy and were curious what I thought about the whole thing. 

I told them the same thing I tell everyone who asks about investing in public stocks. Personally, I put a little in at the beginning of each month sometimes in specific names but mostly in indexes, knowing I can’t time the market, but that entrepreneurship will ultimately carry the day. 

That said, when it comes to NVIDIA (the stock is up a lot), it’s hard not to think that maybe this AI hype cycle has gotten a little out of hand. After all, base rates, but also base rates. 

If you don’t bother to click through to the links the learning is that the vast majority of companies don’t grow that fast and end up justifying high valuations and also that almost no projects, let alone complicated ones, come in on time, at budget, and with the projected benefits. 

And that’s fine. Just keep it in mind.

Have a great weekend.

– By Tim Hanson

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