Brain Arbitrage
Brent (our CEO) called me the other day and said “I had a dream last night that we moved the firm to San Francisco and were wildly successful, so let’s make it happen.” And that’s why we’ve started the process of closing up shop here in Columbia, Missouri, and moving the team out to California…
Of course, that would never happen. There may be merits to Permanent Equity having an office in California, but the fact the CEO dreamed about such a thing would never be considered one of them. I’d go so far as to say that if Brent suggested that he dreamed about it as a justification for us doing anything, we’d try to get him help.
Yet such a stance stands in contrast to many historical examples. Among them, Constantine was empowered to conquer Rome by a dream and Sitting Bull shown the courage and tactics to defeat Custer at Little Big Horn.
What’s happened then for dreams to have declined so much in relative strategic value?
This is the question posed in The Oracle of Night, one of the more engaging books I read last year. Tracing an evolutionary path, it makes the case for paying attention to our dreams as useful signals of risk, opportunity, and probability. What are nightmares if not the brain scenario planning for tail events?
And after all, the things we think about and imagine while we are awake are hugely valuable to us. They inform everything we do. When we dream, it’s the same brain doing the same things, it’s just that the rest of us is asleep. Why are those ruminations worthless?
When I thought about it, I couldn’t answer that question satisfactorily (and figured I might as well take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity if my brain is willing to work overtime), so I followed the book’s advice and started keeping a dream journal. This takes the form of a reliable pen and notebook on my bedside table and when I wake up each morning I write down what I remember about what I dreamed.
Have I done something like move to San Francisco as a result? No, but it’s been interesting to look back at the problems my brain wrestles with at night and think about why and how they might inform what I do during the day.
— By Tim Hanson