Tornado Traffic
My daughter and I were parking the other day at a soccer complex in Illinois that is susceptible to severe traffic jams when everyone tries to leave at the same time. Some relevant information here is that the last time we were at this soccer complex, her game got blown dead due to a tornado warning and then no one could escape as the sky turned green and the sirens started wailing because we were all waiting to merge into one lane of traffic and make a right on red.
“Eff this,” I finally said and drove up over the curb and onto a bike path that took us to safer ground.
The reason this is relevant information is that as we were parking this time I said to my daughter, “Do you want to park near the field and risk getting stuck in traffic when the tornado hits or should we park near the exit and have to walk a ways to the field?”
I, of course, would prefer to park near the exit and walk because (1) optionality and (2) I’m an Apple Watch psychopath.
But she said, “I don’t think a tornado is likely, so let’s park near the field. That way we’re sure of getting something good.”
So I said, “I love that you’re thinking about risk and reward and you’re probably right about a tornado, but I think you’re overvaluing the reward of parking close and undervaluing the risk of getting stuck in traffic.”
And she turned and looked at me funny, so I parked near the field because (1) I know I’m crazy and (2) I didn’t want her to be late.
Yet I still think I was right (even after leaving out the benefit of getting more steps in, which admittedly has more value for the geezer about to sit and watch a soccer game than it does the young person about to run a handful of miles playing in one). The reason is that earning gains of one magnitude without being cognizant of the potential magnitude of losses said gains expose you to regardless of the infinitesimal likelihood of said losses materializing is a good way to eventually end up on the wrong side of a bet.
In other words, getting a great parking spot is not worth being stuck in your SUV when it’s sucked up by an F5. While that seems obvious in this context, I can assure you it is not in the real world. People look at you funny after 10,000 instances of being angry, tired, and behind schedule because you parked out in left field when you keep suggesting you park there to escape from a tornado that has never materialized.