The Weekly: Edition #15 - October 18, 2019
The new consumer - a KKR report on changing consumer trends (KKR)
+ While the average consumer seems relatively stable, there are large differences in consumer balance sheets based on home-ownership and renter profiles. Here are a few key quotes on the state of the consumer:
1. Spending: "Spending on both housing as well as durable goods has shown recent improvement, and motor vehicle spending remains solid. Our work has shown that historically, a significant slowdown or decline in spending on durable goods or motor vehicles in particular has precipitated a downturn by a year or more."
2. Credit: "With regard to credit, we are beginning to see some early evidence of headwinds. The proportion of banks tightening lending standards on consumer credit cards has reached the highest level since prior to the financial crisis"
3. Balance sheet: "Finally, the strength of the consumer balance sheet in the aggregate indicates that as the cycle turns, the overall sector is in decent shape to weather a potential downturn. For one, the consumer financial obligations ratio – a measure of household debt-to-income remains at historical lows."
In addition to the state of the consumer, the rise of the rental economy post-financial crisis has several structural drivers that are worth noting in KKR's latest consumer trends report:
1. Student loans: "As of the end of 2018, 43 million Americans owed $1.4 trillion in student debt, an average of $33,500 per borrower. Of the 43 million, 17 million were under 30, and borrowers over 40 are responsible for 40 percent of all education debt."
2. Lack of savings: "For one, the absence of savings for many renters limits their ability to afford the down payment on a house or car."
3. Flexibility and convenience: "Third, the flexibility and convenience offered by sharing economy models remain attractive to consumers. Consumers enjoy the benefits of access without the responsibilities of direct ownership."
The structural factors above are leading to a growing rental and sharing economy among millennial and gen-z consumers. This is a trend that has already affected industries including retail, real estate, transportation, and will continue to affect many more:
The rental economy takes flight (US Chamber of Commerce)
+ "Rentals of consumer goods generated $60 billion in revenue in the United States last year, excluding vehicle and home rentals, according to retail analytics firm GlobalData. A survey by JLL for its 2019 “Future of Retail” report found that 57.3% of all consumers are willing to rent, rather than buy, if the products are “well-made and trendy.” For millennial and Generation Z consumers, the percentage was over 70%."
CostCo's $4.99 rotisserie chicken comes at a tall price (CNN)
+ The new Costco strategy of bringing chicken supply in-house is causing waves in the meat industry. Look for potentially more retailers to attempt to integrate important supply chains vertically: "The chickens have become almost a cult item. 91 million were sold last year, double the number from a decade earlier. They have their own Facebook page with nearly 13,000 followers."
Jeff Bezos' master plan: what he really wants and what it means for the rest of us (The Atlantic)
+ A deep dive on Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, his vision for the company, and what it means to live in its shadow. For another take on the business of Amazon, check out this profile by The New Yorker.
Domino's atoned for its crimes against pizza and built a $9B empire (Bloomberg)
+ In the age of technology-driven services, the base product still matters: "As much as tech, what buoyed Domino’s was a once-in-an-industry strategy: In 2009 it admitted that its foundational product was … bad. Most chains that encounter trouble cop to some failing: Starbucks Corp. once said it built too many stores. McDonald’s Corp. tried to sell healthier food. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. promised patrons they wouldn’t get sick. But Domino’s has outdone them all."
The millennial urban lifestyle is about to get more expensive (The Atlantic)
+ Profits are an old-fashioned lesson getting new attention in the private markets: "If you wake up on a Casper mattress, work out with a Peloton before breakfast, Uber to your desk at a WeWork, order DoorDash for lunch, take a Lyft home, and get dinner through Postmates, you’ve interacted with seven companies that will collectively lose nearly $14 billion this year."
How Emily Weiss’s Glossier grew from millennial catnip to billion-dollar juggernaut (Vanity Fair)
+ This is what it looks like to ride the current millennial instagram and internet marketing trends to billion-dollar status.
New Google local discovery tool: search by photos (Blumenthals)
+ This new Google feature showing images for business results could be a game-changer for small businesses showcasing their products online.
Some businesses bet that tackling burnout will boost bottom lines (The Hustle)
+ Employers are beginning to explore potential ways to deal with increased workplace-related mental health issues to cut healthcare-related costs: "Increased workloads, limited staff and resources, and crazy-long hours are common contributors to the problem. Meanwhile, living expenses are out of control for many younger workers, and that student loan debt ain’t goin’ nowhere. On top of that, there’s a deeply ingrained notion that work shouldn’t just bring in money; it should also provide a sense of identity. The feeling is so pervasive, some go so far as to call “workism” the new religion."
This Chilean startup could help people consume less plastic (The Hustle)
+ Algramo, a bulk dry goods company, is attempting to solve the overabundance of plastic trash by offering large discounts on consumable goods when customers refill their Algramo-branded reusable containers.
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