Three Things About Bad Presidents
Since it was President’s Day this week I figured I might point out that based on recent polling, it seems likely that no matter what happens in the upcoming presidential election, most Americans will be unhappy with the result. I will say three things about that…
One: My former direct report Morgan Housel says that the most controversial piece he ever wrote based on reader feedback was this one. Called “The Best Presidents for the Economy,” it presented historical data about how “the stock market, corporate profits, GDP, and inflation have done under every president since Teddy Roosevelt.” While those tables have disappeared from that article, here’s the updated data on real GDP growth:
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via Morgan Housel; *Partial term
Like Morgan did, I will simply leave that there and let you “create a story around it as you wish.”
Two: Political uncertainty in the US is being cited as a significant risk factor in 2024. Here, for example, is Time calling it the number one global risk. And here are US CEOs telling KPMG that political uncertainty is the top risk to growth. In other words, it’s safe to say that people are worried about the upcoming election and positioning accordingly.
Three: When it comes to politics, “epistemic spillovers” are a thing. What this means is that if you agree with some politically, you are more likely to take their guidance and advice on other matters even if that person has no relevant knowledge in that domain. This leads to “suboptimal information-seeking decisions and errors in judgment.” Keep that in mind and try to remain objective about non-political decisions amid heightened political rhetoric.
And those are the three things I’ll say about that. Have a great weekend.
-Tim
