The Weekly: Edition #78 - January 1st, 2021
Peaks and Valleys
"If you're going through Hell, keep going." - Winston Churchill
The economic, political, and emotional volatility of 2020 was historic by any standard and illustrated how much of a rollercoaster life can be. It served as a sober reminder of how many factors are truly outside of our control. The peaks and valleys of 2020 were incredibly difficult for anyone with a business to worry about, a family to provide for, a mortgage to pay, or dependents to take care of. The pandemic spared almost no one.
Prior to the pandemic, it was the best of times for all. During the pandemic it was the worst of times for all. After the pandemic, it has been either the best or worst of times depending on your industry, location, and business - factors that are largely beyond your control to change overnight.
For those who operate businesses benefiting from the massive changes accelerated by the pandemic, remember that there are tailwinds outside of your control that propelled your business forward. You are riding an economic wave that began as a swell and ended as a monster barrel. Sure, you picked a lucrative industry and the trends were heading in the right direction. Call it luck, call it divine providence, call it whatever you'd like - we're all subject to a little good fortune at some point in our lives that has little to do with our past decisions. Don't pause at the peak - keep climbing.
The reverse is also true.
For those who operate businesses languishing from the after-effects of economic lockdowns and interruptions caused by the pandemic, remember there are factors that are outside of your control that affected your business. The tide will come back in, and times will improve. There are no words that can bring back early 2020 times or improve the current situation, and Churchill's timeless advice is the best we can offer. Keep going.
The pandemic may have crippled your business or tripled your business. Either way, chalk a good bit of it up to factors outside of your control. If you're in the deepest valley you've ever experienced, the best way forward is to simply acknowledge the path ahead and keep your eyes off the scoreboard - keep playing the game, keep going. For those at the peak, don't take time to soak it in - keep climbing, because you never know when the next valley will present itself.
As 2020 comes to a close and we begin a new year, Permanent Equity wishes everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year. Keep climbing, stay in the game, and wherever you are, keep going.
Does working from home make employees more productive? (The Economist)
+ "Before covid-19 roughly 5% of Americans worked from home. By May the figure had risen to 62%. By October 40% were still shunning the office. Both employers and employees have grumbled that the shift to home-working has been disruptive. But according to new research by Natalia Emanuel and Emma Harrington, two doctoral students in economics at Harvard, firms may be better off."
Hotels turn empty rooms into private dining suites (The Real Deal)
+ "The hotel industry has lost $46 billion in revenue in 2020, with nearly 1 billion unsold hotel room nights on the horizon for the year. Several large hotel chains have already closed properties, such as the 478-room Hilton Times Square in New York, which permanently shut its doors in September. Restaurants aren’t faring any better: 37 percent of restaurants nationwide said they do not expect to survive the next six months without federal relief, according to a recent industry survey."
Small business pulse survey - Dec. 2020 (US Census)
+ "The Small Business Pulse Survey (SBPS) measures the effect of changing business conditions during the Coronavirus pandemic on our nation’s small businesses. SBPS complements existing U.S. Census Bureau data collections by providing high-frequency, detailed information on the challenges small businesses are facing during the Coronavirus pandemic."
Small business optimism index (NFIB.org)
+ "Key findings include: Earnings trends over the past 3 months declined 4 points to a net negative 7% reporting higher earnings quarter over quarter. Inventory investment plans for the next 3 to 6 months decreased 7 points from a 48-year record high of a net 12% in October to a net 5% in November."
Connected world: an evolution in connectivity beyond the 5G revolution (McKinsey Global Institute)
+ "The promise of 5G has captured the attention of business leaders, policy makers, and the media. But how much of that promise is likely to be realized anytime soon? With the first true high-band 5G networks already live, we set out to take a realistic view of how and where connectivity could be deployed and what it can enable over the next 10 years. But 5G is not appearing in isolation. This research takes a more expansive view of connectivity to include other technologies, ranging from fiber and satellites to Wi-Fi and short-range technologies."
How to become insanely well-connected (First Round Review)
+ "When asked what’s made his career possible, he’ll tell you outright it’s the relationships — built deliberately over many years. This might sound like a common response, but among his peers, he’s acknowledged to be a world-class super-connector with rarefied expertise. Known for helping launch the famed TEDTalks (this is his 24th year attending TED), and a landmark Forbes piece on nailing email introductions, Fralic still responds thoughtfully to over 10,000 emails every year."
Remote work and the tech-enabled exit: where to live (Doug Antin)
+ "There are some lingering challenges for the development of remote work policies. Specifically, what will the post Covid-19 work policies actually look like once lockdowns end? Will the majority of workers need to visit the office once a week or will they be fully remote? And will their jobs allow work in a different time zone? My theory is that +/- 6 hour time difference will be become the generally accepted range in the short term transition to permanent remote work."
Agriculture industry bets on carbon as a new cash crop (Wall Street Journal)
+ "Big agriculture companies including Bayer AG , Nutrien Ltd. and Cargill Inc. are jockeying with startups to encourage crop producers to adopt climate-friendly practices and develop farming-driven carbon markets. Those efforts would let retailers, food makers and other companies offset their greenhouse gas emissions by paying farmers for their fields’ capacity to withdraw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and trap it in the soil."
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